Kalven, H., & Zeisel, H. (1966). The American jury. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Judges and juries disagreed on verdict 25% of time; juries somewhat more lenient. In a sample of 225 cases in which the 1st ballot was reconstructed, a simple majority predicted the final verdict in 90% of the trials. Hung juries occurred in less than 5% of cases.
This highly-acclaimed report from the University of Chicago Law School jury study answers the fundamental query: How differently might judge and jury decide the same case? Drawing from 3576 jury trial reports from courts all over the United States, the study offers a general theory of jury decision making. “The American Jury is absolutely indispensable to anyone who would desire full comprehension of the functioning of the American jury. Not only the entire bar but intelligent and interested laymen as well should be profoundly grateful for the efforts of Professors Kalven and Zeisel.” (The Honorable Arthur J. Goldberg) “This is the sort of law book that appears once in a decade…. A pioneering work … to be savored and reread, not one to be gulped at a single sitting. (Judge Henry J. Friendly) “This book will become a familiar tool in the hands of the many political scientists, sociologists, and social psychologists interested in the law.” (Harry P. Stumpf) “The Chicago jury project appears to be unique in American law schools as an undertaking of rigorously scientific research in a strictly legal field. Some work has been done at other American law schools, notably Yale and UCLA, but there has not yet been any production of significant empiric legal data comparable to that of the Chicago project.” (The Honorable Lee Loevinger)